Lloyd Williams talks to his jockeys at trackwork. Source: News Limited
THE shape of Saturday's $2.5 million Caulfield Cup rests with one man, millionaire owner Lloyd Williams.
Never before have the fortunes of so many — mainly half a dozen jockeys stuck in limbo — revolved around one decision, which will be made about noon lunchtime on Monday when Williams reveals his Cup hand.
He has six horses still in the Cup, and final declarations will be taken at 7am on Tuesday.
It is possible Williams and his trainer Robert Hickmott might have just one runner, likely to be the well-backed Fawkner, who will climb in if Williams takes a few out.
It was also suggested that Williams might run Masked Marvel.
Green Moon is regarded as most unlikely and fellow import Sea Moon at best 50-50.
If Green Moon doesn't run, weights will be raised 1.5kg — but only if Sea Moon doesn't accept. If he does, weights go up a kilogram.
Green Moon, Sea Moon, Masked Marvel and Mourayan are eligible to start but Fawkner, regarded as arguably Williams' top chance, is on the fringe of missing out.
It might require the withdrawal of stablemates for Fawkner — a well-backed $15 chance — to make the cut.
Amid all of this confusion sits Brett Prebble, whose probable call-up by Williams came as Prebble sang the praises of another fringe dweller, the European raider Forgotten Voice.
Prebble also had his hat in the ring to ride third favourite Royal Descent, who has had a handful of possible riders over the past fortnight but none firmly booked.
Racing Victoria's Paul Bloodworth said it would take a "minor miracle'' for Forgotten Voice to gain a start.
Brett Prebble works Green Moon. Source: News Limited
"Lloyd would have to take nearly all of his out, even then he'll struggle to get in,'' Bloodworth said.
Prebble shrugged his shoulders and smirked when asked about the uncertainty of the Cup.
"I don't know what's going on, if I have a ride or I haven't,'' Prebble said at Werribee yesterday after dismounting from Forgotten Voice.
"I'm just part of it all (the confusing Cup picture).''
While impressed with Forgotten Voice, who galloped with Cup second favourite Dandino, Prebble said Williams would have first call on his services.
"Definitely, if Lloyd has one for me I'll ride it,'' he said.
Prebble said he couldn't split Williams' trio of Seville, Fawkner and Masked Marvel.
He said Sea Moon's resilience had surprised him, but said the star import was racing well below his best European form.
"They're all good rides. It would probably come down to barriers,'' he said.
Prebble appeared most upbeat about Fawkner, a last-start third in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on September 30.
"Fawkner the other day was huge. He was exposed at the 700 and in front at the 300. It was his first decent hit-out this preparation,'' he said.
Prebble described Forgotten Voice, who has mixed flat and hurdle racing, as "a proper horse''.
"He gave me a real good feel. I was surprised at the turn of foot he had,'' he said.
Fawkner is well backed for the Caulfield Cup. Source: News Limited
Prebble said Dandino, ridden by Craig Williams, "looked to outwork me'', but added Williams was "about 6kg lighter''.
CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
Saturday - 18 runners and four emergencies. Final acceptances 10am.
Order of entry
Exempt from ballot
1 SEA MOON (Ire) Robert Hickmott 57kg
2 FORETELLER (GB) Chris Waller 54.5kg (unlikely)
3 MR O'CEIRIN (NZ) Ciaron Maher 53kg
4 TUSCAN FIRE Dan O'Sullivan 52kg
Passed first ballot clause
5 GREEN MOON (Ire) Robert Hickmott 58kg (unlikely)
6 MANIGHAR (Fra) Peter Moody 56.5kg
SUPER COOL Mark Kavanagh 55kg (unlikely)
8 ROYAL DESCENT Chris Waller 52.5kg
9 DANDINO (GB) Marco Botti 55kg
ETHIOPIA Pat Carey 55kg
MOURAYAN (Ire) Robert Hickmott 55kg
SEVILLE (Ger) Robert Hickmott 55kg (unlikely)
13 DEAR DEMI Clarrie Conners 51.5kg
HAWKSPUR Chris Waller 53kg
MASKED MARVEL (GB) Robert Hickmott 54.5kg (unlikely)
SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) Roger James 53kg
WALDPARK (Ger) Anthony Freedman 54.5kg
18 GLENCADAM GOLD (Ire) Gai Waterhouse 54kg
MR MOET Adam Durrant 54kg
QUINTISSENTIAL (NZ) John Sargent 52.5kg
SIMENON (Ire) Willie Mullins 54kg
TANBY Robert Hickmott 54kg (unlikely)
23 FAWKNER Robert Hickmott 53.5kg
JET AWAY (GB) David Hayes 53.5kg
KELINNI (Ire) Chris Waller 53.5kg
MORIARTY (Ire) Chris Waller 53.5kg
MY QUEST FOR PEACE (Ire) Peter Moody 53.5kg
28 FORGOTTEN VOICE (Ire) Nicky Henderson 53kg
JULIENAS (Ire) Gai Waterhouse 53kg
29 IBICENCO (Ger) Peter Moody 52.5kg
KESAMPOUR (Fra) Peter Moody 52.5kg
SNEAK A PEEK (Ita) Peter Moody 52.5kg
33 MOUDRE Ciaron Maher 52kg
34 OASIS BLOOM Morgan and Widdison 50kg
35 ARALDO (Ger) Michael Moroney 51kg
MOTIVADO (GB) David Hayes 51kg
TALENT SHOW Graeme Ballantyne 50kg
38 GOLDONI (Ire) David Hayes 50kg
LET'S MAKE ADEAL Nigel Blackiston 50kg
Not passed first ballot clause
40 TREVIERES (Fra) Markus Nigge 50.5kg
Not passed first elimination clause
41 BASS STRAIT (NZ) David Hayes 50kg
THE BETTING
Caulfield Cup (2400m)
$4.40 Hawkspur
$7 Dandino, Royal Descent
$13 Dear Demi, Jet Away, Fawkner
$18 Mr O'Ceirin, Masked Marvel
$21 Foreteller, Green Moon, Seville, Super Cool
$31 Ethopia, Manighar, Mr Moet, Moriarty, Waldpark
Melbourne Cup (3200m)
$6 Fiorente
$7 Hawkspur
$8.50 Puissance De Lune
$10 Mount Athos
$16 Verema, Voleuse De Coeurs
$21 Dandino, Green Moon, Masked Marvel, Royal Descent, Sea Moon, Simenon, Tres Blue
Odds: TAB
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